A Candid Analysis on Why Gold is Not in a Bubble

Cycle investing is all about buying an asset when it is undervalued, staying disciplined and not sell when the price rises, then having the fortitude to sell when you feel the asset is overvalued. See every asset goes in cycles. It cannot raise forever- even gold. If the price of gold rose up forever, you would soon have enough to where one ounce can buy all the real estate in the world. So even though gold is rising in price (and value now) - it is currently at about $1660 an ounce- at some point the price and value will inevitably have to come down.

So how do we know if gold is undervalued or overvalued at this time?

There are two camps of thought on this. There is one camp that says that gold is in a bubble, it is overvalued, and you should avoid it at all cost. Many liberals and progressives fall in this camp. On the other side is the camp that feels that gold is extremely undervalued and now is the time to buy.

To best determine who is right, a good investor does a great deal of research and analyst. One source of reliable information is the CPM Group's Annual Gold Yearbook. Below are two graphs from the latest edition.

This first graph shows that since 1990 the global financial assets has risen in every asset class from stocks (represented as gray in the chart as equities), government debt securities(T-Notes, etc), private debt securities, and bank deposits.

This chart shows that despite the rise of the gold price every year since 1990, gold is still only about 0.7 as a percent of global financial assets. It can be concluded by looking at the charts that since 199 the world's financial assets have risen- even gold. However, gold as a percentage of global financial assets is still very low. A bubble is when the price of an asset is overvalued - much like real estate prices in the United States were overvalued a few years ago and tech stocks were overvalued in the early 2000's. In the case today, the price of gold is is increasing but compared to the percentage of the world's assets it is not rising tremendously and is still a small amount. If anything,the world is awash with too much paper assets and not enough gold assets.

Comments

[gelo buendia]

Anaconda Mining intersects 752.54 g/t gold over 0.5 metres and 56.67 g/t gold over 1.0 metre; initiates further drilling to test high-grade mineralized zone

https://www.anacondamining.com/2018-07-11-Anaconda-Mining-Sells-4-330-Ounces-of-Gold-in-Q2-2018-Achieves-Record-Quarterly-Throughput

[suleman]

I wonder if the Gold Prices have shot up because the Communist Chinese own a major portion of the gold mines and are creating export quotas against anyone else using the resource to create high technological productions. As the Communist Chinese are following exactly in the Soviets foot steps. From everything from creating a Bloc which is now called the Bric, to trying to implement a single world currency, to literally going on a resource domination campaign.

[Deanna R. Jones]

I've been wondering about gold's financial standing just now. I've been left with a number of rare gold coins. I'm not really sure what gold is valued at now, so it's really helpful to have information with a financial analysis of gold. Thanks for posting!
http://www.revelljewelers.com/Services/Gold-Buying.aspx

[Garlansm]

I was for a number of years investing in numismatic coins to the tune of about one hundred grand and I really enjoyed the hobby. I considered them a great investment, but then all the chatter about silver and gold started. Talk about how bad of shape the US is in. I began to wonder about just what kind of an investment would my numismatic coins be if I woke up one morning to find that all I had left; the dollar had finally failed. What if their only value now was based on their silver or gold content? Suddenly it did not make since anymore to be spending six or ten thousand dollar for a numismatic coin regardless of it quality. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold as they say. I sold my lovely and I say lovely simply because I still miss them; but none the less I sold the collection and invested all of it in silver. I did my due diligence as required and I had to agree that the smartest thing to do was to take physical procession of the silver I bought and I did this. Now I have an enormous safe full of silver bars, coins, rounds and 90% silver. Primarily now I purchase 90% silver. I have found it the best way to accumulate the most ounces for the least amount of money and that is the objective I believe. Great! Now you article requires me again to question my reasoning. What am I really expecting? Well I am not looking for the Apocalypse per say, but I do believe thing are going to get very bad, very dangerous and it will happen very quickly when it finally begins. I was one of those who had my head in the sand for a long time. Oh I said to myself, it can’t possibly happen to my country. Not the United States of America. Now of course I realize just how foolish that thinking is. Regardless of the many wonderful thing the US has ever done; I am now officially ashamed of my country. We have lost or moral compass. We as a country have turned our backs on God and the religious faith, the backbone, the foundation on which the greatest country in the world was built. This comes at a great price of course and the piper or the fat lady as they say is warming up. The majority of us have lived like sheep and allowed our government to point the way. Too many are forced to live on handouts and to many more choose to live on handouts; instead of working toward the goals and principles our country was originally founded on. Too many of us have become lazy and too many of us have become greedy. There’s plenty of blame to go around. I’ve been a bit of both at times myself. So what my reason for buying silver and gold? I am preparing for the difficult times I keep hearing are coming. Let's face it. If the dollar does collapse and we get up one morning to find out regardless of the amount we had that it no longer available or if it is, it’s worthless, we are not going to be happy people. Let’s face facts; three hundred million very unhappy people will lead to some real unrest. Unfortunately it’s not likely that the majority of us are going to act as civilized as we’ve seen the Japanese’s recently do after the devastating earthquake which took place in their country. Much could be learned from them. My God bless the Japanese! But instead as we all know, instead were more likely going to be facing so really horrific times. The words "can't we all just get along" comes to mind now, but we won't. These days are going to require real survival skills and a means of obtaining the basics. Silver is just a means to an end, a means of being prepared. During these turbulent days there will be those who prepared and those who have not. It’s correct, you can’t eat silver, but you can certainly buy something to eat with silver. For me it is about being able to barter. We should have never left the gold standard and until we return to it we are doomed to failure. We are approaching fourteen trillion; please people wake up and prepare. Abolish the Fed, Return to the Gold Standard and elect only those who agree to do both.