Chicago Gold and Silver Investing Fan Blog

Citadel

A group of patriotic citizens plan to build an armed self sustained community called the Citadel. IT will be located in Idaho and the plan is to eventually house about 5,000 families on 2-3,000 acres of land.

If this is not a sign that citizens are preparing for some kind of economic collapse or armageddon, then I don't know waht is.

It will be a self armed and self sustained community. According to their website:

Marxists, Socialists, Liberals, and Establishment Republicans may find that living within our Citadel Community is incompatible with their existing ideology and preferred lifestyles.

 

The Make Believe World of Modern Economists

  Let's say you were trying to build a real castle. If you wanted it to last for a while, you would build it under a solid foundation. The same could be said if you wanted to build a solid organization, corporation, or sovereign country.

The traditional foundation for economic progress is hard work, personal responsibility, innovation, initiative, income enhancement, loyalty, motivation, savings,team spirit, skill building, and more.

However, modern economists are trying to create a new definition of economic progress. The traditional tenets of economic success are discarded and replaced by a Doppleganger. That is a monster that is trying to look like real prosperity.

The modern economists has never built a business nor truly understands how a business grows. A business grows when a business provides a product that others want at a price that others are willing to pay for it. Instead, the modern economists feels that economic progress is a result of their central planning techniques such as government stimulus, currency debasement, Zero Interest Rate Policies, quantitative easing, selling more government bonds, deficit spending, artificial asset inflation, and more.

Ageing Japan Won't Be Able to Face It's Obligations

Adult Diaper fashion show in Japan.

There were more adult diapers sold in Japan than baby diapers. This is a huge sign that the adult populations in Japan is greatly more than the children population.

Japan is obligated to pay for all of these old people. There are not enough young people to pay for them. What will happen?

The Japanese government is so desparate to extract more funs from its citizens that it is using the popular girl band akb48 as marketing to sell more Japanese bonds. akb48 is an all -girl band in Japan that likes to dress in school girl outfits. There is a strange obsession in Japanese males for this type of look.

The analysis is undisputed, Japan is in deep financial trouble and will have to go into some kind of sovereign default. We are going to enter a phase of sovereign restructuring of debts. What it means to all of us is how do we figure out how to not lose money when all of this sovereign defaults happen.

What will put Japan over the edge? I feel when Europe goes under, Japan will follow.

Japan will Fall

Shinzo Abe will be the next Prime Minister of Japan.

According to Kyle Bass, of Hayman Capital blog:

"Kyle Bass recommends everyone not to own Japan

Kyle points out that there's 80-200 trillion in global debt. In 18 months Japan will structurally fall apart. He said: "There's no chance at Japan repaying their debt."

He says psychology is important so look at anchoring bias. It's important to think about how others think about debt. Japan's debt to GDP is the worst in the world. Their debt is 25x their revenues."

Bass also adds: He said that playing options on this scenario is the best way as you get paid a ton when it happens and you lose a little while waiting.

This is how Bass makes money.

 

Argentinians Flocking to Dollar not Gold

At about 25% a year, Argentina has one of the highest inlfation rates in the world. With such large uncertainty in Argentine currency, Argentinians are fleeing their peso and sekking alternatives. At this point, you would think gold or silver would be a great alternative. Instead, Argentinians are seeking the US dollar. The US dollar is in high demand in Argentina because they know it will hold its value. Also, with large government intervention, high taxes, and rising inflation people are resorting to the black market. They know that the black market is undocumented formally to the government. So that means, the government cannot collect their taxes.

Why am I mentioning Argentina in this post. Because the situation Argentina could be a preview of what is to come in the United States.

For more on the Dollar demand in Argetina read Dollar Fever.

The Next Collapse

This Man Made Billions on the Sub-Mortgage Crisis...What Does He Think Will Collapse Next


Kyle Bass, founder of Hedge Fund Hayman Capital.(KB blog photo)

Kyle Bass knows a thing or two about profiting from a collapse. After all he made over $590 million after short selling the 2008 sub-prime mortgage bond market.

So what is Bass doing now and what does he feel will fall next?

According to his blog: " In 2011, Bass initiated a huge position in Greek sovereign debt through CDSs. Media reports were that he could profit up to 650 times his investment should Greece default on its debt obligations."

That's right, Bass could profit uptp 650 times his investment should Greece default on its debt obligations - which seems more likely every day.

Here is Bass himself on the state of this very difficult investing situation:

 

 

Egon von Greyerz Take

As US Public debt increases the price of gold will increase (goldswitzerland.com photo)

The States Fiscal Cliff

One of these days (very soon)- a state will fall off the cliff. California? Illinois? New Jersey?
(CAM photo.)

We are hearing talk of a Federal fiscal cliff. Well, it's not only at the Federal level. The state and local level is being slammed. As the economy continues to weaken more and more people are looking for state aid. Combine that with 2008 stimulus funds running dry and you got the makings of a serious states fiscal cliff. Adding to the exacerbation is the poor leadership by mostly Democratic leaders not attempting to fix the structural causes.

It's really simple math. If you spend more than what you take in you will get into a deficit. You do this for too long, which is happening now, and you got yourself in serious financial trouble.

For more on this read:

The State of the State:2012 Full Report A Citizens Guide to the State of the States

End of Money Seminar by Chris Mortenson - Condensed Version

A crash course on the End of Money Seminar by Chris Mortenson -

http://www.anglofareast.com/research/crash-course/

The Derivatives Time Bomb

The above chart is a simpplistic view that shows the rise of derivatives over the years. As you can see since about 2005 the amount of derivatives (a contract) have risen dramatically.

"The reason we have all of these derivatives because you can control markets quite effectively, until you can’t.  At that point the price of gold is going to go crazy.  Thing about the fact that the shadow banking system is $67 trillion, and the leverage that creates in the system.  I just think that the ‘end’ of this is going to be horrific.” - John Embry

Embry points out that derivatives are uses as a way to effectively control market. But at some point, even derivatives won't be able to control the market. At that point the sand castle is going to tumble in one big horrific crash.